{
  "brand": "SPOILER",
  "built_at_utc": "2026-07-04T06:20:04Z",
  "domain": "spoiler.bet",
  "launch_receipts": [
    {
      "close_time_utc": "2026-07-04T17:00:00Z",
      "commit_hash": "ce704fdfdbdf8f57058115fb7ac867cdeae945633763fddefa5e70a798e20e5f",
      "edge_points": {
        "Canada": 0.59,
        "Draw": 0.28,
        "Morocco": -0.36
      },
      "reason": "Hash sealed on X Layer before market close.",
      "reference_tier": "A",
      "status": "SEALED ONCHAIN",
      "title": "Canada vs Morocco",
      "tx_hash": "0xae6dd7748b78d8eeee2477c712a3fe60e60abe9590c8656142fa544722aea7df",
      "verdict": "PASS"
    },
    {
      "close_time_utc": "2026-07-04T21:00:00Z",
      "commit_hash": "5505bbc0e44d05eec0ad6cb7ce0e1af21cdbdfbf1fee54ebc32698ead5c83a84",
      "edge_points": {
        "Draw": 0.23,
        "France": -1.15,
        "Paraguay": 0.42
      },
      "reason": "Hash sealed on X Layer before market close.",
      "reference_tier": "A",
      "status": "SEALED ONCHAIN",
      "title": "Paraguay vs France",
      "tx_hash": "0x12ac4e8c526e19cee71ad452e9c9799fe348d478f34fdf88e86e6050569d43b5",
      "verdict": "PASS"
    },
    {
      "close_time_utc": "2026-07-05T20:00:00Z",
      "commit_hash": "c6b56d04061311bdb046b68e2d045ea6d3efe63942d487aaaea7f893e17f7aa2",
      "edge_points": {
        "Brazil": 0.01,
        "Draw": -1.24,
        "Norway": 0.73
      },
      "reason": "Hash sealed on X Layer before market close.",
      "reference_tier": "A",
      "status": "SEALED ONCHAIN",
      "title": "Brazil vs Norway",
      "tx_hash": "0x800311087ffd70b76c847ebbb141706bad61333da3d11fafebade6c0486082de",
      "verdict": "PASS"
    },
    {
      "close_time_utc": "2026-07-06T00:00:00Z",
      "commit_hash": "24a6c5dc07b7c8fc50ef694643385614964c50391dea9fc31f449dad1508ca55",
      "edge_points": {
        "Draw": -0.81,
        "England": 0.73,
        "Mexico": -0.43
      },
      "reason": "Hash sealed on X Layer before market close.",
      "reference_tier": "A",
      "status": "SEALED ONCHAIN",
      "title": "Mexico vs England",
      "tx_hash": "0x33253115b8b1788fc62048560a15df9130623a152cffda462d1f34346eaa3ef7",
      "verdict": "PASS"
    },
    {
      "close_time_utc": "2026-07-06T19:00:00Z",
      "commit_hash": "201ec3e48b0c70d40ed2f9c673bf347a130adf8533a67c0083a60735ccdef49b",
      "edge_points": {
        "Draw": -0.51,
        "Portugal": 0.86,
        "Spain": -0.84
      },
      "reason": "Hash sealed on X Layer before market close.",
      "reference_tier": "A",
      "status": "SEALED ONCHAIN",
      "title": "Portugal vs Spain",
      "tx_hash": "0x63aa626d1d61b7a7fec847e81a6a0d029d8c19e1f580a5fc1912f0be292ab36e",
      "verdict": "PASS"
    },
    {
      "close_time_utc": "2026-07-07T00:00:00Z",
      "commit_hash": "8e38e3637d7b318bbbab0a515027aa55e39a4e6ab43f9923de097dc3f3e7cfd0",
      "edge_points": {
        "Belgium": 0.56,
        "Draw": -1.42,
        "USA": 0.36
      },
      "reason": "Hash sealed on X Layer before market close.",
      "reference_tier": "A",
      "status": "SEALED ONCHAIN",
      "title": "USA vs Belgium",
      "tx_hash": "0x80ae824b311f3394cd0ee254a3af1a446acb1af5c4e8757fa72b4940f5dcef5a",
      "verdict": "PASS"
    },
    {
      "close_time_utc": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "commit_hash": "dcbf4da07d66bd10908aa26d75127e81d0853255c0f65defd2847afb1a481c17",
      "edge_points": {
        "No": -0.265,
        "Yes": 0.265
      },
      "reason": "Hash sealed on X Layer before market close.",
      "reference_tier": "C",
      "status": "SEALED ONCHAIN",
      "title": "Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026?",
      "tx_hash": "0xd58d5a5fde0c76d4b8c3acdfe98e36caf328a6aab71278a94d0e4b32b36f0773",
      "verdict": "CALL:YES"
    },
    {
      "close_time_utc": "2026-07-03T22:00:00Z",
      "commit_hash": "",
      "edge_points": {
        "Argentina": 0.09,
        "Cape Verde": 0.36,
        "Draw": -0.21
      },
      "reason": "missed pre close seal window during wallet history freeze",
      "reference_tier": "A",
      "status": "SCREENED, GRADED WITHOUT SEAL",
      "title": "Argentina vs Cape Verde",
      "tx_hash": "",
      "verdict": "PASS"
    },
    {
      "close_time_utc": "2026-07-04T01:30:00Z",
      "commit_hash": "",
      "edge_points": {
        "Colombia": -0.33,
        "Draw": -0.05,
        "Ghana": -0.12
      },
      "reason": "missed pre close seal window during wallet history freeze",
      "reference_tier": "A",
      "status": "SCREENED, GRADED WITHOUT SEAL",
      "title": "Colombia vs Ghana",
      "tx_hash": "",
      "verdict": "PASS"
    }
  ],
  "live_board": [
    {
      "deep_link": "https://polymarket.com/event/kraken-ipo-in-2025/kraken-ipo-by-december-31-2026-513",
      "edge_points": 26.5,
      "liquidity_or_spread": "$3,823 liquidity / +1.0 pt spread",
      "market": "Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026?",
      "market_price": 0.235,
      "note": "Non sports proof row, not the flagship commit wave.",
      "reference_tier": "C",
      "side": "CALL:YES",
      "time_to_close": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "venue": "Polymarket",
      "vertical": "crypto",
      "win_probability": 0.5
    }
  ],
  "product_law": [
    "A CALL means the market price is wrong, not that the outcome is certain or likely.",
    "Every slip prints win probability and edge in points.",
    "Live board rows sort open CALLs and FADEs by edge.",
    "Scoreboard leads with flat stake ROI and calibration; hit rate is secondary.",
    "PLOT TWIST is expected cost inside a book, never apology.",
    "First public commit wave is tier A World Cup round of 16."
  ],
  "receipts": [
    {
      "evidence": [
        "The Odds API status code 200.",
        "Openfootball results status code 200.",
        "10 matches, 5 hits, hit rate 0.5000.",
        "Flat stake ROI -0.2330 from one unit on each historical h2h call.",
        "Mean SPOILER Brier 0.632336; three way football scale 0 to 2, uniform baseline 0.667.",
        "n=10 proves the receipt method, not durable edge."
      ],
      "id": "worldcup-2022-10-match-reference-backtest",
      "metrics": {
        "average_clv": null,
        "flat_stake_roi": -0.233,
        "hit_rate": 0.5,
        "matches": 10,
        "mean_spoiler_brier": 0.6323363,
        "mean_venue_close_brier": 0.6323363
      },
      "rows": [
        {
          "actual": "Ecuador",
          "bookmaker": "pinnacle",
          "brier": 0.486993,
          "brier_scale": "three way football, 0 to 2, uniform baseline 0.667",
          "commence_time": "2022-11-20T16:00:00Z",
          "decimal_odds": {
            "Draw": 3.15,
            "Ecuador": 2.28,
            "Qatar": 3.75
          },
          "edge_points": -0.7640491228070201,
          "entry_price": 0.4385964912280702,
          "flat_stake_return": 1.2799999999999998,
          "hit": true,
          "match": "Qatar vs Ecuador",
          "match_no": 1,
          "pick": "Ecuador",
          "reference_probs": {
            "Draw": 0.309788,
            "Ecuador": 0.430956,
            "Qatar": 0.259256
          },
          "score": "0-2",
          "snapshot_timestamp": "2022-11-20T11:55:38Z",
          "spoiler_brier": 0.486993,
          "venue_close_brier": 0.486993,
          "win_probability": 0.430956
        },
        {
          "actual": "England",
          "bookmaker": "pinnacle",
          "brier": 0.114853,
          "brier_scale": "three way football, 0 to 2, uniform baseline 0.667",
          "commence_time": "2022-11-21T13:00:00Z",
          "decimal_odds": {
            "Draw": 4.83,
            "England": 1.35,
            "Iran": 12.66
          },
          "edge_points": -0.81147407407407,
          "entry_price": 0.7407407407407407,
          "flat_stake_return": 0.3500000000000001,
          "hit": true,
          "match": "England vs Iran",
          "match_no": 2,
          "pick": "England",
          "reference_probs": {
            "Draw": 0.195411,
            "England": 0.732626,
            "Iran": 0.071962
          },
          "score": "6-2",
          "snapshot_timestamp": "2022-11-20T11:55:38Z",
          "spoiler_brier": 0.114853,
          "venue_close_brier": 0.114853,
          "win_probability": 0.732626
        },
        {
          "actual": "Netherlands",
          "bookmaker": "pinnacle",
          "brier": 0.20832,
          "brier_scale": "three way football, 0 to 2, uniform baseline 0.667",
          "commence_time": "2022-11-21T16:00:00Z",
          "decimal_odds": {
            "Draw": 4.06,
            "Netherlands": 1.56,
            "Senegal": 7.12
          },
          "edge_points": -0.885464102564093,
          "entry_price": 0.641025641025641,
          "flat_stake_return": 0.56,
          "hit": true,
          "match": "Senegal vs Netherlands",
          "match_no": 3,
          "pick": "Netherlands",
          "reference_probs": {
            "Draw": 0.235743,
            "Netherlands": 0.632171,
            "Senegal": 0.132085
          },
          "score": "0-2",
          "snapshot_timestamp": "2022-11-20T11:55:38Z",
          "spoiler_brier": 0.20832,
          "venue_close_brier": 0.20832,
          "win_probability": 0.632171
        },
        {
          "actual": "Saudi Arabia",
          "bookmaker": "pinnacle",
          "brier": 1.654761,
          "brier_scale": "three way football, 0 to 2, uniform baseline 0.667",
          "commence_time": "2022-11-22T10:00:00Z",
          "decimal_odds": {
            "Argentina": 1.17,
            "Draw": 7.71,
            "Saudi Arabia": 21.66
          },
          "edge_points": -0.7963854700854811,
          "entry_price": 0.8547008547008548,
          "flat_stake_return": -1.0,
          "hit": false,
          "match": "Argentina vs Saudi Arabia",
          "match_no": 4,
          "pick": "Argentina",
          "reference_probs": {
            "Argentina": 0.846737,
            "Draw": 0.11483,
            "Saudi Arabia": 0.038433
          },
          "score": "1-2",
          "snapshot_timestamp": "2022-11-20T11:55:38Z",
          "spoiler_brier": 1.654761,
          "venue_close_brier": 1.654761,
          "win_probability": 0.846737
        },
        {
          "actual": "Draw",
          "bookmaker": "pinnacle",
          "brier": 1.050207,
          "brier_scale": "three way football, 0 to 2, uniform baseline 0.667",
          "commence_time": "2022-11-22T13:00:00Z",
          "decimal_odds": {
            "Denmark": 1.49,
            "Draw": 4.21,
            "Tunisia": 8.21
          },
          "edge_points": -0.9577939597315455,
          "entry_price": 0.6711409395973155,
          "flat_stake_return": -1.0,
          "hit": false,
          "match": "Denmark vs Tunisia",
          "match_no": 5,
          "pick": "Denmark",
          "reference_probs": {
            "Denmark": 0.661563,
            "Draw": 0.225536,
            "Tunisia": 0.112901
          },
          "score": "0-0",
          "snapshot_timestamp": "2022-11-20T11:55:38Z",
          "spoiler_brier": 1.050207,
          "venue_close_brier": 1.050207,
          "win_probability": 0.661563
        },
        {
          "actual": "Draw",
          "bookmaker": "pinnacle",
          "brier": 0.702924,
          "brier_scale": "three way football, 0 to 2, uniform baseline 0.667",
          "commence_time": "2022-11-22T16:00:00Z",
          "decimal_odds": {
            "Draw": 3.08,
            "Mexico": 2.81,
            "Poland": 2.88
          },
          "edge_points": -0.9284886120996483,
          "entry_price": 0.35587188612099646,
          "flat_stake_return": -1.0,
          "hit": false,
          "match": "Mexico vs Poland",
          "match_no": 6,
          "pick": "Mexico",
          "reference_probs": {
            "Draw": 0.315463,
            "Mexico": 0.346587,
            "Poland": 0.33795
          },
          "score": "0-0",
          "snapshot_timestamp": "2022-11-20T11:55:38Z",
          "spoiler_brier": 0.702924,
          "venue_close_brier": 0.702924,
          "win_probability": 0.346587
        },
        {
          "actual": "France",
          "bookmaker": "pinnacle",
          "brier": 0.089774,
          "brier_scale": "three way football, 0 to 2, uniform baseline 0.667",
          "commence_time": "2022-11-22T19:00:00Z",
          "decimal_odds": {
            "Australia": 11.42,
            "Draw": 5.72,
            "France": 1.3
          },
          "edge_points": -0.9119769230769181,
          "entry_price": 0.7692307692307692,
          "flat_stake_return": 0.30000000000000004,
          "hit": true,
          "match": "France vs Australia",
          "match_no": 7,
          "pick": "France",
          "reference_probs": {
            "Australia": 0.078389,
            "Draw": 0.1615,
            "France": 0.760111
          },
          "score": "4-1",
          "snapshot_timestamp": "2022-11-20T11:55:38Z",
          "spoiler_brier": 0.089774,
          "venue_close_brier": 0.089774,
          "win_probability": 0.760111
        },
        {
          "actual": "Draw",
          "bookmaker": "pinnacle",
          "brier": 0.762502,
          "brier_scale": "three way football, 0 to 2, uniform baseline 0.667",
          "commence_time": "2022-11-23T10:00:00Z",
          "decimal_odds": {
            "Croatia": 2.1,
            "Draw": 3.23,
            "Morocco": 4.12
          },
          "edge_points": -0.9549476190476192,
          "entry_price": 0.47619047619047616,
          "flat_stake_return": -1.0,
          "hit": false,
          "match": "Morocco vs Croatia",
          "match_no": 8,
          "pick": "Croatia",
          "reference_probs": {
            "Croatia": 0.466641,
            "Draw": 0.299844,
            "Morocco": 0.233515
          },
          "score": "0-0",
          "snapshot_timestamp": "2022-11-20T11:55:38Z",
          "spoiler_brier": 0.762502,
          "venue_close_brier": 0.762502,
          "win_probability": 0.466641
        },
        {
          "actual": "Japan",
          "bookmaker": "pinnacle",
          "brier": 1.211291,
          "brier_scale": "three way football, 0 to 2, uniform baseline 0.667",
          "commence_time": "2022-11-23T13:00:00Z",
          "decimal_odds": {
            "Draw": 4.66,
            "Germany": 1.5,
            "Japan": 6.64
          },
          "edge_points": -0.9885666666666681,
          "entry_price": 0.6666666666666666,
          "flat_stake_return": -1.0,
          "hit": false,
          "match": "Germany vs Japan",
          "match_no": 9,
          "pick": "Germany",
          "reference_probs": {
            "Draw": 0.202763,
            "Germany": 0.656781,
            "Japan": 0.140456
          },
          "score": "1-2",
          "snapshot_timestamp": "2022-11-20T11:55:38Z",
          "spoiler_brier": 1.211291,
          "venue_close_brier": 1.211291,
          "win_probability": 0.656781
        },
        {
          "actual": "Spain",
          "bookmaker": "pinnacle",
          "brier": 0.041738,
          "brier_scale": "three way football, 0 to 2, uniform baseline 0.667",
          "commence_time": "2022-11-23T16:00:00Z",
          "decimal_odds": {
            "Costa Rica": 19.66,
            "Draw": 7.48,
            "Spain": 1.18
          },
          "edge_points": -0.8404627118644092,
          "entry_price": 0.8474576271186441,
          "flat_stake_return": 0.17999999999999994,
          "hit": true,
          "match": "Spain vs Costa Rica",
          "match_no": 10,
          "pick": "Spain",
          "reference_probs": {
            "Costa Rica": 0.042513,
            "Draw": 0.118434,
            "Spain": 0.839053
          },
          "score": "7-0",
          "snapshot_timestamp": "2022-11-20T11:55:38Z",
          "spoiler_brier": 0.041738,
          "venue_close_brier": 0.041738,
          "win_probability": 0.839053
        }
      ],
      "source": "The Odds API historical h2h plus openfootball results",
      "stamp": "PLOT TWIST SAFE MODE",
      "status": "GRADED REFERENCE TEST",
      "title": "2022 World Cup 10 match reference backtest",
      "vertical": "sports"
    },
    {
      "evidence": [
        "Event id polymarket:691547.",
        "Reference tier C.",
        "Sealed verdict CALL:YES.",
        "Win probability 0.500.",
        "Market price at commit 0.235.",
        "Edge +26.5 points.",
        "SHA-256 commit dcbf4da07d66bd10908aa26d75127e81d0853255c0f65defd2847afb1a481c17.",
        "This is the first non sports proof row."
      ],
      "id": "crypto-live-private-proof-kraken-ipo",
      "metrics": {
        "edge_points": 26.5,
        "grade": null,
        "market_price_at_commit": 0.235,
        "reference_tier": "C",
        "win_probability": 0.5
      },
      "rows": [],
      "source": "Public market cache",
      "stamp": "SPOILER AHEAD",
      "status": "SEALED, NOT GRADED",
      "title": "Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026?",
      "vertical": "crypto"
    }
  ],
  "safety": [
    "This ledger is information only.",
    "This ledger does not custody funds, place bets, execute trades, or guarantee outcomes.",
    "Misses stay visible."
  ],
  "scoreboard": {
    "average_clv": null,
    "average_clv_note": "Added after live slips grade with committed entry price and venue close.",
    "brier_scale": "three way football, 0 to 2, uniform baseline 0.667",
    "flat_stake_roi": -0.233,
    "hit_rate": 0.5,
    "mean_spoiler_brier": 0.6323363,
    "mean_venue_close_brier": 0.6323363,
    "sample_note": "n=10 proves methodology, not edge."
  },
  "stamp": "SPOILER AHEAD",
  "status": "PREVIEW"
}