METHOD
Methodology
A CALL says the market price is wrong, not that an outcome is certain. SPOILER seals each public call before the event so anyone can publicly verify what was published and when.
This is a live trial; performance claims remain locked until the pre-registered review passes.
Every receipt answers two different questions. The outcome grade comes only from resolved outcomes and never changes because prices move later. The price ledger records how the market moved after the seal. A call can receive PLOT TWIST and still have offered a favorable trade before resolution, so we publish both records separately.
The graded record assumes $100 at flat stakes on every graded call at its sealed price. Legs of one event are correlated, so this is a follower record, not a claim that every call is independent. Selective followers may get different results.
Calibration compares stated chances with resolved outcomes to see whether calls carrying similar confidence come true at about the rate the record suggested. It is a check on the honesty of the probabilities, not a promise about any single call.
A scheduler defect delayed some outcome grades. Sealed calls and outcomes were not changed. The grader was repaired, and the awaiting-grade backlog returned to zero.
Trade links to Polymarket carry a referral code. SPOILER may earn a commission. This never affects which markets we call or what we publish.